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Geostrategic Briefing: Turkey

Diplomatic


Turkey's foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been assertive, involving military interventions in Syria, support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and backing the Libyan government. Additionally, Turkey has increased tensions with Greece and Cyprus over drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey also plays a significant role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, brokering a grain export deal and maintaining a "special relationship" with Russia while supporting Ukraine militarily (House of Commons Library, 2023).


Relations with Israel have significantly deteriorated amid the ongoing Gaza conflict. In May 2024, Turkey halted all trade with Israel, demanding the allowance of uninterrupted humanitarian aid into Gaza and a ceasefire (DNyuz, 2024; Times of Israel, 2024). This move marks a stark policy shift, as Ankara traditionally separated political tensions from economic relations. Israeli officials have condemned Turkey's actions, and the trade suspension has strained the economic ties between the two nations, impacting key sectors like construction in Israel due to their reliance on Turkish materials (VOA News, 2024).


Turkey's stance on the Gaza conflict is strongly influenced by Erdoğan's ideological alignment with the Palestinian cause and his support for Hamas. Erdoğan has characterized Hamas as a legitimate political actor rather than a terrorist organization and has condemned Israeli military actions as genocide (Brookings, 2024). Turkey has also taken measures to support Gaza, including attempting to airdrop aid, which was blocked by Israel, further intensifying the diplomatic rift (VOA News, 2024).

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DIME Assessment: Turkey

Turkey's policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is characterized by diplomatic assertiveness, strategic ambition, and industrial growth

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